Philosophy and Psychology L9: Popper and Falsificationism, Law of effect, Sophisticated falsificationism, limitations, Duhem/Quine thesis, Kuhn's interpretation of the history of science

demarcation problem = how can scientific theories be distinguished from claims

Falsificationism = a theory can be falsified, but never confirmed

Falsificationism

- (has/ has not) a solution to the demarcation problem

demarcation problem = how can scientific theories be distinguished from claims

Falsificationism = a theory can be falsified, but never confirmed

Ex: 'it is raining on fridays' = falsifiable

'sometimes it rains sometimes it doesnt' = not falsifiable

Falsificationism

-  (has/ has not) a solution to the  problem of induction

problem of induction: how many observations do we need to accept a theory

falsificationism= a theory cannot be true, but falsified; the more falsifications it survives the better the theory

Falsificationism: a good theory...

- (does/ doesnt) make wide range claims about the world

- (is/ isnt) highly falsifiable

- (does/ doesnt) resist falsification whenever it is put to test

What has the most precision and clarity?

Ex: Thorndike law of effect

"Responses that produce a (certain/ satisfying) effect in (dogs/animals) in a particular situation become more likely to occur again in that situation"

sophisticated falsificationism = the historical evolution of science consists of falsifiable theories, each one being more falsifiable then its predecessor

- it is very difficult to determine how falsifiable a theory is, since the list of falsifiers is potentially infinite

ad-hoc modifications = modification of a theory

- addition of postulate or change in already existing postulate

- has no testable consequences that were not already testable consequences of the unmodified theory

Falsificationalism (is/is not) against ad-hoc modifications

ad-hoc modifications = modification of a theory

- addition of postulate or change in already existing postulate

- has no testable consequences that were not already testable consequences of the unmodified theory

(acceptable/inacceptable) ad-hoc modification: All bread nourishes despite the french village bread

(acceptable/inacceptable) ad-hoc modification: All bread nourishes despite bread contaminated with a fungus

ad-hoc modifications = modification of a theory

- addition of postulate or change in already existing postulate

- has no testable consequences that were not already testable consequences of the unmodified theory

Scientific advances are marked by

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures

= (true/Popper)

or

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures

= (true/Popper)

Match!

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures= discovering something that is considered unlikely in the light of background knowledge

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures

Match!

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures = what was regarded as true is in fact false

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures

Match!

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures =another crazy idea has been proved wrong

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures

Match!

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures=an established and unproblematic theory has been succesfully applied again

(1) the falsification of bold conjectures

(2) the confirmation of cautious conjectures

(3) the confirmation of bold conjectures

(4) the falsification of cautious conjectures

Limitations of falsificationism

O= observation

T= Theory

p = prediction

1. O= true; T(O)= false -> O= false

however theories can be 'theory-laden'

2. T(p) ≠ T(O); p≠O -> T or O is false

A theory entails a prediction inconsistent with the observation, either the Theory or the observation is false

Duhem/Quine hypothesis (auxilary hypothesis) = it is impossible to test a scientific hypothesis in isolation, because an empirical test requires background assumptions

-> any theory can be saved from refutation when background knowledge is adjusted

Flasificationism

- (would/ wouldnt) have rejected good theories in their infancy

- there (are/are no) problems with falsafiability as demarcation criterion: can we falsify string theory?

falsificationism = generates hypothesis that can be falsified by observation

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST)= calculates the probability that H0 is correct, does not take prior knowledge into account

Bayesianism = calculates the prior probability before data is collected

Name Kuhn's phases of the history of science.

Pre-paradigmatic phase, normal science, the crisis, the scientific revolution

Kuhn's phases of the history of science:

1. Pre-paradigmatic phase= A) no shared vocabulary, theories or concepts B) no collab between scientists, no productivity

1. Pre-paradigmatic phase

2. normal science

3. the crisis

4. the scientific revolution

Kuhn's phases of the history of science:

2. normal science= once a paradigm is constructed A) scientist are not critical of their theories, ideas, concepts and measurements B)paradigms are taken for granted = good thing, more productivity

1. Pre-paradigmatic phase

2. normal science

3. the crisis

4. the scientific revolution

Kuhn's phases of the history of science:

3. the crisis= anomalies occur = problems that cannot be solved, because they multiple or scientist become more critical and interested in radical new ideas

1. Pre-paradigmatic phase

2. normal science

3. the crisis

4. the scientific revolution

Kuhn's phases of the history of science:

4. the scientific revolution= a new paradigm is born to solve anomalies: the old is abandoned, the new is accepted

1. Pre-paradigmatic phase

2. normal science

3. the crisis

4. the scientific revolution

Incommensurability Kuhn:

Observational: observation (is/ is not) theory laden and (can/cannot) be used as common ground to compare different theories

Semantic: the language of 1 paradigm (can/ cannot) be used as a common ground to compare different theories

Methodological: (1)  methods to analyze results (are/ are not) different between paradigms and (2) proponents of rival paradigms (do/ do not) agree which problems are important to solve